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التقييم هو مجموع قيمة الأسهم والديون، والأسهم هي ما يهتمّ المستثمرون في تقييمه عادةً. ولكن بما أنّ الشركات الناشئة عبارة عن مشاريع جديدة ولا سجلّ لديها، فإنّ تقييم الشركات الناشئة هو فنٌّ أكثر منه علم. ومع ذلك، يمكن تطبيق عدّة طرق لوضع جهود التقييم في إطارٍ منطقيّ ومقبولٍ على نطاقٍ واسعٍ من التحليل.

 

التقييم بناءً على الأصول الموجودة

 

ربّما تكون الطريقة الأبسط لتقييم الأسهم في الشركة هي المفهوم الذي يقوم على الأصول Asset Based. هذا الأخير أقرب إلى أسلوب المحاسبة، حيث أنّ حقوق المساهمين في الشركة تساوي قيمة الأصول الإجمالية من الميزانية ناقص مجموع الديون.

 

ولكن عندما يتعلّق الأمر بالشركات الناشئة، فإنّ اتّباع هذا النهج يودي عموماً إلى أدنى التقديرات، لأنّ الكثير من الشركات الناشئة لا تمتلك ما يكفي من الأصول لتبرير الأرقام المرتفعة.

 

في المقابل، يجب على الشركات الناشئة أن تلتفت إلى المكافأة المستقبلية التي تقوم على الملكية الفكرية الخاصّة، وآفاق السوق، وأكثر من ذلك حتّى. ومن حيث المحاسبة، فإنّ هذا الفرق بين الأصول الفعلية (صافي الديون) والوعد الأساسيّ الكامن، يعود إلى النيّة الحسنة، وهو عاملٌ يبرّر إدخال مضاعف اقتصاديّmultiplier معيّن على نتيجة فارق القيمة الدفترية book value بين الأصول والديون.

 

المضاعف الاقتصاديّ هو رقمٌ نوعيّ يعكس هذا المزيج من الوعد المستقبليّ، وتوجّهات السوق، وحقّ المستثمِرين في اتّخاذ القرار، والمفاوضات الشفّافة، والتضخّم المالي، وعامل الوقت، والذي يحاول المتنافسون الاستثمار فيه بنفس المبالغ لإعادة إنشاء عروضٍ مماثلة.

 

ومن الجدير بالذكر أن طريقة احتساب القيمة بناءً على الأصول جنباً إلى جنب مع المضاعف، يشار إليها أحياناً على أنّها طريقة تكلفة إعادة التقييم Cost to Reproduce valuation method.

 

التدفقات النقدية المخصومة

 

من الطرق الكمّية الأخرى هي تحليل التدفّق النقدي المخصوم Discounted Cash Flow. ينطوي هذا المفهوم على إدراج تكاليف الشركة وإيراداتها الماضية، ومن ثمّ توقّعها خلال السنوات الثلاث أو الخمس المقبلة.

 

 بالرغم من أنّ هذا المفهوم يناسب في الغالب الشركات التي تمتلك سجلّاً للتكاليف والعائدات، غير أنّه يمكن أن يشكّل أداةً مفيدةً لتقييم الشركة الناشئة بسبب التفكير المعمّق والبحوث التي يحتاجها لربط التوقّعات المستقبلية بالخطط الاستراتيجية، إلى جانب التحليل اللائم للسوق للتنبّؤ بأرقام الإيرادات المتوقَّعة.

 

الثابت في عملية تحليل التدفق النقدي المخصوم DCF هو معدّل الفائدة، فهذا الأخير يُستخدَم لخصم التدفّقات النقدية المستقبلية: المتوسّط المرجّح لتكلفة رأس المال Weighted Average Cost of Capital.

 

والمتوسّط المرجّح لتكلفة رأس المال WACC هو عملية حسابية تقوم على نظرية تمويل الشركات، حيث أنّ ظروف السوق والمخاطر المرتبطة بالمشروع نفسه تقود إلى معرفة التكلفة المقدّرة لاستثمار المال في الشركة الناشئة. وفي منطقة الشرق الأوسط وشمال أفريقيا، يدور المتوسّط المرجّح لتكلفة رأس المال في فلك الـ30% وما فوق.

 

وبالتالي، مع خصم التدفقات النقدية المستقبلية المتوقّعة من قيمة متوسّط تكلفة رأس المال، يمكن بعملية حسابيةٍ بسيطةٍ أن تُظهِر القيمة الحالية للشركة.

 

قابلية المقارنة في السوق

 

تتمثّل إحدى الطرق الأكثر ميلاً إلى النوعية في قابلية المقارنة في السوق Market Comparables، وهي تنطوي على البحث في قيمة أسهم الشركات المماثلة وديونها.

 

 بالنسبة إلى الشركات الناشئة التي لم تبدأ بعد بجني الإيرادات يمكن لهذا التحليل أن يكون بسيطاً، بحيث يتمّ اختيار عددٍ من الشركات العاملة في المجال نفسه ومن ثمّ تحديد او تقدير قيمة أسهمها، قبل مقارنتها بالشركة الناشئة عبر اتّخاذ المعدّل أو المتوسّط كمثال.

 

أمّا الشركات التي بدأت فعلاً بجني الإيرادات، فيمكن أن تكون المقارنة أكثر دقّةً بالاعتماد على مساواة نسبة تقييم الأسهم في الشركات المماثلة بأرقام المبيعات (على النحو الذي يحّدده ’أرباح الشركة قبل احتساب الفوائد والضرائب والإهلاك واستهلاك الدين‘ EBITDA، أو صافي الإيرادات)

 

طريقة بركوس

 

يوجد طرقٌ أخرى لتقييم الشركات الناشئة، مثل طريقة دايف بركوس Dave Berkus المفيدة للشركات الناشئة في مراحلها الأولى وقبل تحقيق الإيرادات.

 

ترتبط هذه طريقة التقييم هذه بقيمةٍ معيّنةٍ للدولار بالاعتماد على معيارٍ كالفكرة نفسها، أي إذا كانت الشركة الناشئة فد طوّرَت نموذجها الأوّلي، أو نوعية الفريق الإداري، ومدى الشعبية في السوق من حيث الشراكات الاستراتيجية وأرقام المبيعات.

 

توفّر طريقة بركوس ميزةً تتمثّل في عمليةٍ حسابيةٍ محبّبة، ولكنّها تصل إلى حدٍّ أقصى مقداره 2.5 مليون دولار. هذا الحدّ قد لا يكون كافياً للمشاريع التي تعِد بالكثير، ويعني ذلك الشركات التي تعمل بجهدٍ على تطوير مفهومها والتي تكون في مرحلة جمع التمويل قبل التسويق وتحقيق الإيرادات.

 

طريقة شيكاغو الأولى

 

هناك طريقةٌ أوسع لتقييم الشركات الناشئة يمكن أن تتكوّن من الأساليب المذكورة أعلاه، عن طريق ترجيح نتائج طرق التقييم المختلفة.

 

تُسمّى هذه الطريق بـ"طريقة الترجيح" أو "طريقة شيكاغو الأولى" Weighted or First Chicago Method، وهي ترتبط بنسبةٍ معيّنةٍ بثلاثة نتائج للتقييم مثلاً، واحدة لآخر السلسلة (مثل نتيجة التقييم بناءً على الأصول)، وواحدة لوسطها، وواحد لأعلاها.

 

ويمكن للنتائج الخاصّة بالجوانب الوسطى والعليا أن تتّصل بتقديراتٍ متفائلةٍ إلى حدٍّ معقول ومتفائلة جدّاً، باستخدام أساليب مثل التدفّقات النقدية المخصومة وقابلية المقارنة في السوق.

 

لا قواعد صارمة

 

مهما كانت الطريقة المستخدَمة، من المهم التأكيد على أنّ الرقم النهائي المتّفَق عليه مع المستثمرين والمعنيين يتعلّق عموماً بالمفاوضات أكثر من نتيجة العملية الحسابية. فبعض المستثمِرين قد يكون لديهم مبادئ خاصّة بهم لتقييم الشركات الناشئة، استناداً إلى عوامل مختلفة مثل القطاع المستهدَف، والموقع الجغرافي للشركة، وسيرة المؤسِّسين.

 

كما أنّه عند جمع نتيجة الاستثمار مع الحصّة المرجوّة بعد الاستثمار، يمكن أن نصل إلى تقييمٍ واقعيّ (يُعرَف أيضاً بـطريقة الاستثمار المخاطر للتقييم Venture Capital valuation method).

 

ومن الأمثلة البسيطة على ذلك، أنّه عندما يكون مستثمِرٌ ما على استعدادٍ لضخّ مليون دولار في مقابل حصّةٍ تبلغ 15% بعد الاستثمار، فهذا يعكس تلقائياً التقييم ما قبل الحصول على المال والذي يبلغ 5.6 ملايين دولار، بناءً على العملية الحسابية التالية: سوف يشكّل مبلغ المليون دولار 15% من القيمة ما بعد الحصول على المال، وهو ما يعني أنّ القيمة ما بعد المال هي 6.6 ملايين دولار، ممّا ينطوي على تقييم أقلّ بمليون دولار ما قبل الحصول على المال، وهذا يعني 5.6 ملايين دولار.

 

كيف تقيّم أسهمك؟

 

عملية الحساب هذه تطرح بعض الأسئلة: كيف يرتبط التقييم بملكية الأسهم؛ كيف يقرّر المستثمِرون ما هي النسبة المئوية التي يريدونها؛ وما الذي ينبغي على المؤسِّسين أن يضعوه في عين الاعتبار أثناء التفاوض على قيمة الشركة.

 

السؤال الأوّل يتطلب فهم أنّ نسبة الملكية هي معدّل الأسهم المملوكة من الحصّة الإجمالية.

 

الرقم الذي يشير إلى التقييم، يعطي بنفسه القيمة المحسوبة لقيمة سعر السهم ما قبل حصول الشركة على المال: إذا كانت الحصّة الإجمالية قبل الاستثمار تبلغ 500 سهم، والقيمة بعد الحصول على المال تبلغ 5.6 ملايين دولار، سيكون عندها سعر السهم 11,200 دولار. وهذا يعني أنّ المستثمر الذي يدفع مليون دولار، يشتري في الواقع 89 سهماً (تقريباً).

 

وبحيث سيصدر بعد الاستثمار 89 سهماً جديداً، ستصبح الحصّة الإجمالية عندها 589 سهماً، وبالتالي سيمتلك المستثمِر 15%.

 

وفقاً لذلك أيضاً، فإنّ ملكية المؤسِّسين ستتقلّص كذلك: وهذا يُسمّى "تضخيم عدد الأسهم بإصدارات جديدة" dilution. وإذا افترضنا أنّ المؤسِّسين يمتلكون الأسهم الـ500 جميعها قبل الاستثمار (حصة الأسهم بنسبة 100%)، فبعد الاستثمار سوف يصبح لديهم 500 سهمٍ من أصل 589، أي ما يعادل 85%.

 

إضافة معادل العائد الداخلي إلى عملية الحساب

 

قرار المستثمرين بهدف الحصول على حصّة مفترضة بعد حصول الشركة على المال، غالباً ما يتعلّق بمعدّل العائد الداخلي Internal Rate of Return الذي يرغب به المستثمرون. وبالنظر إلى التقديرات المتعلّقة بالقيمة التي يمكن أن تباع بها الشركة بعد بضع سنوات، فإن الحصّة المئوية تسمح في صرف مبلغٍ معين من المال النقدي.

 

ربط هذا المبلغ بالاستثمار الحالي، يُعطينا معدّل العائد الداخلي IRR. القيمة التي يمكن أن تُباع فيها شركةٌ ما، عادةً ما تُحتسَب بالاعتماد على العائدات السنوية المتوقّعة، مضروبةً بمضاعفٍ محدّد للقطاع.

 

في المثل أعلاه، يدفع المستثمرون مليون دولار. وإذا كانت العائدات المتوقّعة لخمس سنوات تبلع 10 ملايين دولار، ومضاعف الإيرادات للتقييم في تلك اللحظة هو 5، عندها ستكون القيمة المستقبلية للشركة بعد خمس سنوات 50 مليون دولار. وبالتالي إذا كان المستثمِرون يسعون إلى أن يبلغ معدّل العائد الداخلي 50% على استثماراتهم البالغة مليون دولار سوف يكون عليهم ضخّ حوالي 7.6 ملايين دولار عند صفقة البيع أو الاستحواذ exit، وهذا يعني 15% من الـ50 مليوناً.

 

ومن المهم أيضاً أن نتذكر أنّ جولة الاستثمار هذه لن تكون الأخيرة على الأرجح، على الأقل ليس قبل أن تصبح الشركة مربحةً وقادرةً على تمويل نموّها في المستقبل.

 

ونتيجة لذلك، يجب على أصحاب الشركات أن يحاولوا الاحتفاظ بملكيةٍ كافيةٍ من أجل الحفاظ على فسحةٍ للمناورة عندما تنخفض قيمة الأسهم بسبب الإصدارات الجديدة في المستقبل، وهو أمرٌ سيحدث بلا شك في جولات التمويل اللاحقة. من جهةٍ ثانية، فإنّ حقوق التصويت المرتبطة بالأسهم المصدَرة حديثاً هي أيضاً من الأمور المهمّة جدّاً، لأن الملكية لا تكمن فقط في القدرة على الاستفادة من الأرباح في المستقبل أو في أرباح رأس المال، ولكن أيضاً في الاحتفاظ بما يكفي من سلطة اتّخاذ القرار بشأن مصير الشركة.

 

في الختام، لا تقتصر ريادة الأعمال قط على تحقيق نجاحٍ كبير، بل تتمحور أيضاً حول تحويل الرؤية والفكرة إلى واقع، وربّما يكون ذلك بنتائج معقولة أو أكثر قيمة لأيّ رائد أعمال.